Urban Sprawl and Fuel Consumption in Post-Earthquake Period: A Quasi-Experimental Evidence

Title:	Urban Sprawl and Fuel Consumption in Post-Earthquake Period: A Quasi-Experimental Evidence
Number:	24/01
Author(s):	Ahmet Duhan Yassa
Language:	English
Date:	February 2024
Abstract:	This paper investigates the role of urban sprawl and urban mobility on long-term fuel consumption after the 2011 Van earthquake in Türkiye. Both province-level synthetic control and firm-level difference-in-differences (DID) analyses indicate a statistically significant increase in fuel consumption in Van after the earthquake, even though there was no dramatic change in the main determinants of fuel consumption in the province in this period. Findings from the satellite-supported population density images and sensor-level traffic density data reveal that rising population density in peripheral regions and increasing urban mobility within the province are the potential drivers of the rise in fuel consumption. While the impact of the Van earthquake on fuel consumption, the foreign trade deficit and greenhouse gas emissions was limited given the size of the city, the results highlight the potential impact of other major disasters that have occurred in the recent past and are expected to occur in the future.
Keywords:	Urban sprawl, Fuel consumption, Earthquake, Synthetic control, Greenhouse gas emissions, Trade deficit
JEL Codes:	Q54; R11