Financial Stability

Recent Trends in Card Spending Preferences

Halil İbrahim Aydın,Mehmet Selman Çolak,Yavuz Kılıç

In this blog post, we analyze the real increase in card balances and find that it is largely driven by individuals' tendencies to use cards instead of cash as a means of payment.

Monetary Policy

Deposit Preferences and FX-Protected Deposit Developments

Fazilet Çavuşoğlu,Cihan Fırat,Erinç Menekşe

In this blog post, we analyze the relation between the growth in FX deposits and the reduction in the FX-protected deposit balances in light of data, and interpret this relationship in the context of savers’ currency preferences.

Inflation

An Evaluation of the Revision in Residential Property Price Index Calculations

Özgül Atılgan Ayanoğlu,Erdi Kızılkaya

With the July 2024 publication, the The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye changed the method of calculating the Residential Property Price Index so as to provide the public monthly price changes in a way that provides more timely information. In this blog post, we summarize the scope of the revision as well as its effects on the indices.

Financial Stability

Recent Trends in Foreign Exchange Loans

Tanju Çapacıoğlu

Following a decline after 2018, foreign exchange loans have recently assumed an upward trend. Subsequent to this uptick, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye took additional tightening steps in support of the tight monetary policy. This study examines the dynamics of the recent increase in foreign exchange loans and analyzes the developments in loan maturities in view of supply/demand-side factors.

Inflation

A New Publication for Monitoring Inflation Expectations: Sectoral Inflation Expectations

Özgül Atılgan Ayanoğlu,Kübra Yıldız Özertaş,Ünal Seven

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye has started to publish the Sectoral Inflation Expectations, consolidating the 12-month-ahead inflation expectations of a range of economic actors. This blog post examines the methodology of the Sectoral Inflation Expectations publication as well as the inflation expectations shared with the public.

Balance of Payments

Current Account Balance in Türkiye During Periods of Monetary Tightening

Okan Eren,Ece Taşan

During periods of monetary tightening, rebalancing of domestic demand is expected to positively affect the foreign trade balance and the current account balance. The latest monetary tightening cycle, which began in June 2023, affects various macroeconomic indicators besides inflation, including foreign trade and the current account balance. In this blog post, we provide a descriptive analysis of the effects of the recent monetary tightening on Türkiye’s foreign trade and current account balance.

Monetary Policy

Profit and Loss in Central Bank Operations

Ahmet Bilal Kurtoğlu,Furkan Höçük,Ömer Batuhan Beşirli

Central banks, by virtue of the duties and powers vested in them by law, operate within a framework that, unlike that of commercial banks, pursues the public interest and does not seek to make a profit. Periodic loss announcements by central banks during extraordinary times are temporary and exceptional, as the literature points out, and thus do not serve as an indicator for assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Financial Markets

A New Indicator for Property Prices: Commercial Property Price Index

Özgül Atılgan Ayanoğlu,Ezgi Deryol,Erdi Kızılkaya,Duygu Konukçu Çelik

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye started to publish the Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) on 26 February 2024. This blog post provides information on the calculation method and results of the CPPI measured for Türkiye, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir.

Monetary Policy

A Glance at FX-Protected and Standard Deposits from an Investor Perspective

Halil İbrahim Aydın,Halil İbrahim Korkmaz

This blog post discusses the option value of the KKM as well as the factors determining savers’ preferences between the KKM and TL deposits. It also presents an evaluation of the impact of the CBRT’s steps to strengthen TL deposits from an investor perspective, and reveals that increasing the relative attractiveness of TL deposits has stimulated a decline in KKM balances.

Monetary Policy

The Effect of Regulations to Promote the Turkish Lira Deposits on Interest Rates

Halil İbrahim Aydın,Tuba Pelin Sümer

This blog post analyzes the impacts of the regulations announced on 20 August 2023 on deposit rates. The results of the analysis suggest that the regulation introduced on August 20 has promoted the conversion of FX-protected deposits to Turkish lira deposits, thereby supporting macro financial stability, the monetary transmission mechanism, and the monetary tightening process that started in June.

Monetary Policy

FX Purchase Behavior of Firms with FX-Protected Deposit (KKM) Accounts

Yusuf Emre Akgündüz,Ünal Seven

According to the impact analysis, presented here in summary form, the conversion process from DDM deposits to Turkish lira accounts has not created an additional demand for FX. Moreover, after the regulations, the likelihood of firms with maturing accounts becoming net FX buyers has significantly decreased.

Growth

Organized Industrial Zones and Economic Performance

Orhun Sevinç,Didem Yazıcı,Emre Çakır,Simin Bayraktar,Özlem Sevinç

Firms in Organized Industrial Zones (OIZs) deliver a better economic performance than other firms. OIZs are in a key position in terms of efficiency of targeted industrial and targeted financing policies through clustering.

Monetary Policy

Liraization Strategy

Şahap Kavcıoğlu

The liraization strategy lays out a comprehensive policy framework that has been continuously improved to ensure that the Turkish economy achieves permanent price and financial stability.

Balance of Payments

An Assessment of Revisions in Debt Statistics

Serdar Erkılıç,Hakan Hüsnü Toprak,Eda Altuntaş Dursun,Yahya Kocakale

This study gives a brief account of the scope and impact of the revisions to the statistics of Short Term External Debt, International Investment Position (IIP), Foreign Exchange Assets and Liabilities of Non-Financial Companies and Weekly Securities disseminated by the Central Bank of the Republic Turkey on 19 August 2021.

Financial Markets

Cash Usage Habits in Türkiye

Saygın Çevik,Aybüke Töre Altunel

This blog post evaluates the results of the Cash Usage Habits Survey conducted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye in September-October 2020 to understand the cash usage habits in our country and to examine the importance of cash in payment methods.

Balance of Payments

What is the International Trade in Services Statistics?

Serdar Erkılıç,Barış Babaoğlu

The ITS statistics introduced by TurkStat are based on comprehensive micro-databases comprising administrative records and firms’ direct reporting. These statistics provide information at international standards in a breakdown by type of services and country.

Unemployment-Employment

An Important Growth Potential: “Vacant Jobs”

Müşerref Küçükbayrak

The existence of vacant jobs is an indicator of an important growth potential for economies. However, challenges in filling vacancies may restrain this potential. This blog post examines characteristics of these firms by using the Labor Market Surveys of the Turkish Employment Agency.

International Trade

Estimation of Imported Input Utilization by Using Micro Data

Yusuf Emre Akgündüz,Salih Fendoğlu

Knowing how much imported input is used during production by export companies is important with respect to better understanding the prospective impacts of exchange rate fluctuations on exports and the general economy. In recent study, we tried to measure imported input dependence of Turkey's exports using micro-level data.

Financial Markets

Countercyclical Capital Buffer as a Macroprudential Tool

Zeynep Özge Yetkin,Muhammed İslami Önal

The indicator to be employed to set the buffer ratio should measure the sectoral stress accurately, be applicable at an international scale, and be simple, clear and rule-based, as those qualities are directly connected to the effectiveness and credibility of the CCyB.

International Trade

The Role of Productivity in Translating Exchange Rate Advantages into Competitive Advantages

Orhun Sevinç

The consistency of the productive capacity revealed in the form of foreign trade performance with the sectoral real effective exchange rate supports the interpretation of the decline in real effective exchange rate indices as competitive advantages. On the other hand, the strong medium-term relation between sectoral real effective exchange rate series and productivity points to the potential importance of productivity in the translation of nominal exchange rate advantages into international competitive advantages.

International Trade

The Growing Role of China in the World Economy

Emre Yalçın

Having joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China integrated rapidly into the world economy and grew to become a key player to have direct implications for many economies through trade and finance. This natural influence of the world’s greatest exporter and second largest importer comes up in changing ways over time.

Financial Markets

Alternative Financing Methods: Venture Capital, Angel Investment and Crowdfunding

Fatih Yılmaz,Ünal Seven,Ahmet Duhan Yassa

Venture capital and angel investment channels are particularly important instruments to boost direct investments of foreign investors in Turkey through international networks. Expansion of these methods is important in terms of their contribution to financial intermediation and their potential in providing high quality external financing.

Monetary Policy

Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction Process: What Is the New Normal?

İsmail Anıl Talaslı,Devrim Yavuz

The Fed started its balance sheet reduction program in the last quarter of 2017 and publicly announced its pace as well as its method. However, it did not make any commitment on the extent and deadline of this reduction. Following the recent slowdown in global growth, the Fed also suspended its policy normalization and announced that it would end the balance sheet reduction in September 2019 accordingly.In this note, we summarize that framework and evaluate its implications in terms of the balance sheet normalization.

Balance of Payments

How Do Tourists Spend Their Money?

Serdar Erkılıç,Demet Şenoğlu

The country of origin and the profile of inbound tourists as well as data on spending items that generate tourism revenue are key to analyzing tourism trends, identifying a target market and proposing better policies.

Monetary Policy

Exchange Rate Effect on Monetary Aggregates: How Do We Adjust?

Arzu Tarman Topkaya,Burcu Tunç,Cansu Gökçe Zeybek

When the exchange rate effect is ignored, the fluctuation in the money supply may seem larger than it actually is in periods of substantial changes in exchange rates, producing misleading signals. Monitoring high-frequency money supply developments in both exchange rate-adjusted and non-exchange-rate-adjusted terms may be a better idea in economies with a high share of FX deposits in the money supply.

Financial Markets

How Effective Are the Regulations to Encourage Personal Savings?

Egemen Eroğlu,Merve Demirbaş Özbekler

Approximately 6.1 billion TL worth of savings have been brought into the economy since the second quarter of 2016 as a result of policies towards increasing savings. Of this amount, 4.6 billion TL came from AES, 1.3 billion TL from gold-backed securities investments, and 175 million TL from housing and dowry accounts.

Growth

What Does the Housing Supply Tell Us?

Evren Ceritoğlu,Aytül Ganioğlu

The aim of this study is to evaluate the supply-demand balance in the housing sector. The supply-demand balance gives us information about the stock buildup in the housing sector.

Inflation

Wage Dynamics in Turkey

Ayşe Arzu Yavuz,Evren Erdoğan Coşar

A considerable proportion of wage and salary employees in Turkey earn wages at and around the minimum wage, and minimum wage rates and the CPI serve as an anchor for wage increases in the private sector. This mechanism limits the sensitivity of wages to business cycles across the economy, leading to a significant rigidity in wage inflation and feeding into inflation rigidity in terms of the interaction between wages and inflation.

Fiscal Policy

The Effect of Amendments to Withholding Tax Regulation on Maturity of Deposits

Egemen Eroğlu,Merve Demirbaş Özbekler

There is a noticeable extension in maturities of TL deposits since September. In the current financial setting, which has seen favorable implications of fading uncertainties and a macroeconomic rebalancing, the tax regulation made vis-à-vis withholding rates has contributed to the extension of deposit maturities as well as to curbing the dollarization.

Inflation

A Glance at the Structural Components of Inflation: Demography

M. Koray Kalafatcılar,Mustafa Utku Özmen

As the weight of age groups with different economic behavior in the total population changes, so does the total production and spending levels, hence the course of inflation. In this context, one of our findings is that the disinflationary effect of demography in developing countries will decrease gradually in the upcoming years. However, the figures we calculated for Turkey indicate that this change will not reach a level that may play a decisive role on inflation dynamics in the very near future.

Unemployment-Employment

Do Cyclical Fluctuations Have a Permanent Effect on Employment?

Kurmaş Akdoğan

Flexibility in labor markets should be handled with pros and cons. Even if low costs incurred by firms when meeting the labor demand from the free market is preferable in terms of the economy’s resilience against shocks, the cumulative effect to stem from rapid lay-offs on the economy should also be taken into consideration.

Fiscal Policy

Domestic Debt Stock: Which Instruments Do Different Types of Investors Prefer?

Serap İnci Özyer,Mehmet Kasım Tırpan,Erdal Yılmaz

In this blog post, we aim to examine the domestic debt instrument preferences of investors in Turkey and compare them with some selected countries. Cross-country comparisons reveal that non-resident investors prefer long-term fixed-rate debt instruments. However, instrument preferences of other investors of the domestic debt stock vary across countries.

Growth

Firm Investment Dynamics in the Manufacturing Sector

Mehmet Zahid Samancıoğlu,Seyit Mümin Cilasun,Fatih Yılmaz

Firm investment rates have recently diverged in Turkey. Incentive policies should be designed in such a way as to aim for mechanization, particularly R&D-backed and high tech-based mechanization, in manufacturing industry in the long run, by taking into account differences in the breakdown of investments.

Financial Markets

Household Indebtedness Level from a Comparative Perspective

Egemen Eroğlu,Yavuz Kılıç

Household indebtedness in Turkey is lower than in peer countries. However, it is of critical importance for a balanced growth that factors such as the propensity to save, financial stability, current account balance, and changes in the general price level are taken into account when managing this process.

Inflation

A Micro Perspective on Wages and Labor Productivity

Yusuf Emre Akgündüz,Yusuf Kenan Bağır,Huzeyfe Torun,Altan Aldan

Recently, productivity gains have continued, while real wages have registered a decline. The impact of the changes in composition of employment and production structure is limited in these developments. The surge in productivity in the industrial sector is a favorable sign for inflation and growth dynamics.

Growth

Renewable Energy Use in Turkey

Hülya Saygılı

The share of renewable energy in total supply was up around 12 percent from 2005 across the world in 2016. Turkey has a higher rate of renewable energy use than the OECD average but the rate of increase has proved far from satisfying.

Inflation

Oil Futures Prices: Is A Better Forecaster Available?

Zelal Aktaş

By being simple, transparent and easily accessible, prices on futures markets generally serve as a good starting point for forecasting oil prices, yet it is safe to say that forecasts made using a proper combination of different methods give more reasonable results.

Inflation

A Tale of Two “Core Groups”

Yakup Kutsal Koca,Tuba Yılmaz

The pricing dynamics of core goods and services groups – the two main components of core inflation – are very different. For a sound analysis of core inflation, we should hear the tales of these two groups individually.

Financial Markets

The Role of KGF Guaranteed Loans in Terms of Access to Credit, Cost and Maturity

Tuba Pelin Sümer,Gülcan Yıldırım Güngör

While a substantial number of firms had access to finance with the expansion of the Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) facility, the majority of KGF guaranteed loans were used by corporates that were already borrowers of bank loans. Moreover, findings suggest that the KGF guarantee had significant implications in terms of credit costs and extension of maturities.

Financial Markets

Banks Have Become More Active in Security Market

Ayşe Karasoy

In 2017, banks expanded their deposit base on the one hand and used alternative funding sources on the other. In the upcoming period, continued diversification of funding sources will contribute to both financial deepening and the decline in funding costs.

International Trade

Sailing into the Wind: Turkey’s Increased Share of the World Trade Pie

Mustafa Faruk Aydın

Projections based on World Trade Organization (WTO) data suggest that the uptrend in world trade volume will remain strong in 2018 and Turkey’s foreign trade partners will show a better growth performance than they did in 2017. These projections indicate that the momentum achieved in Turkey’s exports in 2017 will be sustained in 2018.

Financial Markets

MiFID II Arrangement and its Prospective Impacts

Erhan Akkaya,Mehmet Büyükkara

The Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II), which took effect on 3 January 2018, is intended to foster integration between EU financial markets, strengthen investor protection and improve transparency for all market players.

International Trade

Rediscount Credits and Exports

Huzeyfe Torun,Süleyman Hilmi Kal,Tunahan Özdemir,Yusuf Emre Akgündüz

Our findings suggest that rediscount credits support exports. Yet, it should be underlined that a number of factors should be taken into account in the design of such financing instruments and the funds should be distributed in a target-oriented and efficient way.

Financial Stability

Data Gaps Initiative and Turkey

Fatma Burcu Çakal,Ahmet Adnan Eken,Burcu Zuhal İman Er,Şeyma Serdengeçti

The Data Gaps Initiative has made a significant contribution to countries in collecting and disseminating comparable, consistent and timely statistics. As for Turkey, there have been significant improvements in the statistics produced within the scope of the Initiative with respect to timing and content, and new statistics, such as sectoral accounts and real estate price indices, have started to be compiled and produced that will facilitate monitoring economic activity in Turkey.

International Trade

An Assessment of the Use of Imported Inputs and Different Perspectives

Elif Özcan Tok,Orhun Sevinç,Semih Tümen

It seems hard to decide whether the use of imported inputs is at an optimum by merely looking at figures or making cross-country comparisons. However, if we evaluate the use of imported inputs in a breakdown by sectors and in light of its change over time, the existence of some structural problems can be seen clearly.

Financial Markets

Corporate Sector’s Default Probability and Its Impact on the Banking Sector’s Asset Quality

Gülcan Yıldırım Güngör,Tuba Pelin Sümer

There appears to be a correlation between the developments in the firms’ default probabilities calculated by the option pricing model and the NPL ratios. Therefore, it is considered that it may be helpful to use the corporate sector default probabilities in credit risk analyses and in the studies to be carried out to monitor the asset quality of the banking sector.

Financial Markets

A New Approach to Balance Sheets: Financial Risk Rating for Real Sector Firms

Mehmet Selman Çolak

In this study, the MFA-score, which measures the firm’s financial soundness with a high predictive power, was developed by using the balance sheet data of the real sector firms quoted on the BIST. As a result of our analysis, we found that distressed firms have a small share in terms of asset size, meanwhile, the firm debt and FX open position mostly concentrate in firms that are financially sound.

Inflation

Are Producer Prices Running and Consumer Prices Chasing?

Dilara Ertuğ,Canan Yüksel Yücel

Producer prices are an indicator for capturing cost-side pressures on consumer prices. but the difference between the rates of increase in these series grows in favor of producer prices during periods of import cost shocks. Accordingly, it is natural that there was a divergence between D-PPI and CPI in 2017 when oil prices and exchange rates displayed significant movements.

Financial Markets

Gold Banking in Turkey

Pelin Alp,Fatih Akça,Gökhan Koyuncu

All stakeholders led by commercial banks are expected to contribute to developing and proliferating gold-related financial instruments to ensure the success of the process.

Financial Markets

Shadow Banking and Turkey

Mehmet Büyükkara,Muhammed İslami Önal

“Shadow banking” activities, which have a relatively low share in Turkey’s financial markets, are closely monitored as they constitute a factor of vulnerability on a global scale.

Financial Markets

An Overview of Misconduct Risk

Muhammed İslami Önal,Mehmet Büyükkara

Misconduct can be a severe factor of fragility for financial institutions. Misconduct that increases particularly in periods of accelerated financial innovations not only causes damage to institutions but also leads to systemic risks by triggering a confidence crisis that may spread through the whole system through the contagion effect.

Financial Markets

Impact of Macroprudential Policies on Loan Utilization

Selva Bahar Baziki

In September 2016 Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency introduced some amendments to macroprudential policy regulations. These changes had a favorable impact on the growth rates of housing loans and general-purpose loans, which played an important role in the recovery in the annual growth rate of total retail loans in the last quarter of 2016.

International Trade

To Be or Not To Be an Exporter!

Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan

Even if firms’ decisions about exports are stable, it can be asserted that crises can lead to some dramatic changes in export behaviors of firms. In this context, it is very important to take into account the peculiarities of the period while determining incentives and measures to be introduced during economic fluctuations.

Financial Markets

An Overview of the Basel Banking Regulations

Muhammed İslami Önal,Mehmet Büyükkara,Zeynep Özge Yetkin

The Turkish banking sector does not experience any problems in implementing Basel III regulations thanks to its high capital adequacy level, strong risk management, effective supervisory and internal control systems, robust equity structure, high level of liquidity, low leverage level and deposit-based funding structure.

Inflation

Inflation Dynamics from a Bayesian Perspective

Fethi Öğünç,Mustafa Utku Özmen,Çağrı Sarıkaya

In Turkey, exogenous factors such as exchange rates and import prices have a significant impact on inflation. Estimates of pass-through from exchange rates and import prices to inflation allow us to make quite clear policy inferences as they contain no significant uncertainty. Nevertheless, pass-through from economic activity and wages to inflation contains a wider uncertainty band.

Fiscal Policy

When and How Does Fiscal Policy Become Effective?

Erdal Yılmaz,Hande Küçük Yeşil

The timely, targeted and temporary fiscal measures such as funding support and employment incentives have a high multiplier effect and a significant potential for creating tax revenues, which is expected to limit the impact of these measures on the budget deficit to some extent.

Financial Stability

Have Our Views on the Savings Gap Changed After the National Income Revision?

Evren Ceritoğlu,Seyit Mümin Cilasun

The Turkish Statistical Institution has recently made a revision in the national account system. Due to the revision, one of the most important differences between the series was in savings rates. However, the improvement observed in the savings rate in the aftermath of the national income revision does not eliminate the need for structural reforms in this area.

International Trade

A Note on the Enhancement of the Customs Union

Emre Kaya,Merve Mavuş Kütük

Due to Turkey’s prolonged EU membership process, which has lasted for over twenty years, and also due to a series of conjunctural and technical reasons, a need for an enhancement of the Customs Union has emerged in recent years.

Balance of Payments

GDDS Portfolio of Non-Residents: Who Are Those Foreigners?

Ahmet Adnan Eken,Mehmet Kasım Tırpan,Neslihan Tuba Kavruk,Başak Erdoğan

A developed and efficient government domestic debt securities (GDDS) market attracts foreign investors to Turkey. Actually, while GDDS held by non-residents has increased over time, the GDDS portfolio of non-residents has become an important item within the financial account of the balance of payments.

Inflation

Impact of the Change in the Weight Structure of Clothing and Footwear Group on the Underlying Trend of Inflation

Fethi Öğünç,Mustafa Utku Özmen

The methodological change in the weight structure of seasonal products is likely to cause fluctuations in core inflation via clothing and footwear prices. Therefore, in order to be able to make a healthy evaluation of the underlying trend of inflation, it would be wise to take into account the indicators adjusted for these effects for 2017 as it is a transition year.

Balance of Payments

An Analysis of Net Errors and Omissions

Barış Babaoğlu,Osman Çağatay Mutlu,Murat Topkaya

The NEO is affected by the foreign exchange legislation that changes over time, domestic economic developments, the course of the global economy, and the expectations and related behaviors of economic agents.

Growth

To What Extent Do Working Days Affect Growth?

Çağlar Yüncüler

When we need to make an economically meaningful deduction on the main trend of economic activity, we need to adopt an approach that excludes calendar effects from the variables.

Inflation

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Is There a Magical Coefficient?

Ali Hakan Kara,Fethi Öğünç,Çağrı Sarıkaya,Mustafa Utku Özmen

The degree of exchange rate pass-through to inflation may vary depending on the economic environment. Currently, the weak economic activity is limiting the exchange rate pass-through, whereas the behavior of exchange rate expectations pose upward risks.

Monetary Policy

Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy

Ali Hakan Kara,Pınar Özlü,Deren Ünalmış

Financial conditions, conceptually, summarizes whether financial indicators such as interest rates, exchange rates, asset prices and credit conditions are being restrictive or accommodative on economic activity.

Monetary Policy

Funding Need of the System and Collateral FX Deposit Facility

Şule Şenel Tabak

The Turkish lira liquidity demanded by banks from the Central Bank is determined according to the funding need of the system and the types of assets accepted as collateral for Turkish lira (TL) liquidity facilities of the CBRT do not determine the funding need of the system.

Financial Stability

On Turkey’s Total Debt

Burcu Çakmak,Eda Altuntaş Dursun

The total debt of resident sectors in Turkey is mostly driven by internal debts and its ratio to GDP has been on the decline since the third quarter of 2015, remaining at low levels compared to the selected countries.